Today’s Market View – Anglo American, Bacanora Lithium, Altus Strategies and more…

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SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 18 11 20


Platinum poised for record deficit this year




Altus Strategies* (LON:ALS) – BUY, 132p – Updated Diba PEA using stronger metallurgical recoveries lifts project NPV to $140m


Anglo American (LON:AAL) – De Beers reports steady rough diamond sales demand while cautioning on continuing Covid19 risks


Bacanora Lithium (LON:BCN) – Mexico presses ahead with plans to nationalise lithium industry


Botswana Diamonds (LON:BOD) – Drilling underway at Thorny River and Marsfontein


IronRidge Resources* (LON:IRR) – IronRidge renews gold licenses in Chad


KAZ Minerals (LON:KAZ) – Baimskaya capex revised upwards and commissioning delayed




WPC – Platinum poised for record deficit this year on supply disruptions


The World Platinum Council predicts a market deficit of 1.2Moz this year, the largest since records began and almost four times higher than it forecast two months ago.


Mine closures as a result of Covid-19 and outages at Anglo American’s South African converter plant have cut supply, despite this, prices have declined about 3% while palladium prices have risen over 19%.


The council expects the deficit to shrink to 224,000oz in 2021 as South Africa returns to full output, although a rebound in demand from automakers and jewelers is also expected.




EV bus maker Arrival is reported to be talks to merge with a CIIG Merger Corp SPAC in $5-6bn deal.


Investors in Arrival include Blackrock, Hyundai, Kia Motors and UPS who placed an order for 10,000 vans worth GBP339m with Arrival in January.


A number of EV firms have gone public through SPAC deals this year including: Romeo Power Technology, Fisker, Lordstown Motors, Canoo Electric and Nikola.


Arrival is expected to rival Rivian which has received backing from Amazon and raised $2.5bn in July. Rivian has a contract to deliver 100,000 vans to Amazon. Ford has also invested $500m into the Company, but subsequently pulled out of plans to build an all-electric SUV through their Lincoln brand with Rivian.




Tianqi Lithium Corp (002466 SHE) Rmb23.84, Mkt cap Rmb33bn – Lithium may be unable to repay $1.88bn loan this month (SCMP)


Tianqi Lithium, based in Sichuan has said it may not be able to repay a US$1.88bn of loans this month


The company used the loan to help fund the $4.1bn acquisition of a 23.8% stake in SQM based in Chile in May 2018.


China Citic Bank managed the consortium loans which are 179.4% of net assets.


The company put up US$726m of its own capital and borrowed US$3.5bn to buy SQM.


Lithium prices have plunged by about 60% to US$116.23/t from a peak of US$296 in May 2018


Tianqi’s H1 sales fell 27.4% to Rmb1.88bn yuan yoy




Recent interviews:


VOX – 11/11/20: https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/media/5fae36b5b9f74a03c9dfcc02/?context=/listings/LON/BMN/multimedia/


US Election, China growth policies Solgold*, Mkango*, Rainbow Rare Earths*: https://youtu.be/YKk5-kVpVGE


EV revolution, gold and other ideas (Interactive Investor): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ja0IdjszfCc


Metals Markets: Are they totally dependent on stimulus? (IG TV): https://youtu.be/TOiSwRpgfKM


*SP Angel act as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos.




APEX survey rankings for SP Angel commodity forecasts: 2nd in Gold, 2nd in Copper, 2nd in Nickel, 1st in Tin, 5th in Iron ore.


The survey takes forecast from 21 analysts from commodity traders, banks, economics and specialist commodity forecasters




Dow Jones Industrials -0.56% at 29,783


Nikkei 225 -1.10% at 25,728


HK Hang Seng +0.49% at 26,554


Shanghai Composite +0.22% at 3,347




Economics


RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) agreement may encourage the US into re-joining the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership)


News of agreement between many Asian countries around the Pacific region have clubbed together in the RCEP may encourage the US into re-joining the TPP through the removal of provisions relating to investment protection.


The TPP was set to cover around 40% of the global economy before President Trump withdrew the US in 2017.




EU – Hungary and Poland blocked approval of the 2021-27 EUR1.1tn budget and EUR750bn recovery fund due to the rule of law clause.


EU leaders will undoubtedly pressure both nations into accepting the budget this week




China – How many Chinese companies will fail or need bailing out as true cost of pandemic hits home?


Tianqi Lithium will be one of many Chinese multinationals which have been caught out by the cost of the pandemic.


Microwave weapon used to cook Indian soldiers in the Himalayas


The claim was made by a professor of International Relations at Beijing’s Renmin University.


The weapon was used to cook the Indian soldiers causing their withdrawal from their mountain outposts facing China.


The weapon is said not to cause any permanent damage.




UK – Ten Point Plan for Green Industrial Revolution


Today, the PM sets out his ten-point plan for a green industrial revolution. The government is to invest GBP4bn in creating 250,000 new green jobs.


Scotland, the North East, Yorkshire and the Humber, West Midlands and Wales are at the centre of the plan.


The ten points are focused on offshore wind, hydrogen, nuclear, electric vehicles, public transport, jet zero and greener maritime, homes and public buildings, carbon capture, nature, and innovation and finance.


Johnson laid out a number of investments in each of these sectors to support the plan and make the UK the world leader in clean wind energy.


These commitments and funding send a signal to industries across the British economy to invest in the UK and marks the start of the UK’s path to net zero, with further plans to reduce emissions and create jobs in the run up to the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow next year.




Peru – political instability, demonstrations and general unrest has potential to disrupt production of copper, zinc, gold, silver and some other metals.


The interim president left after public violence followed by the Peruvian Cabinet. A new interim president has been appointed till 21st April.


President Francisco Sagasti is a 76-year-old engineer and academic. Lets hope he lasts longer than the last one!




Currencies


US$1.1879/eur vs 1.1864/eur yesterday. Yen 103.97/$ vs 104.35/$. SAr 15.331/$ vs 15.365/$. $1.328/gbp vs $1.321/gbp. 0.731/aud vs 0.731/aud. CNY 6.551/$ vs 6.556/$.




Commodity News


Precious metals:


Gold US$1,884/oz vs US$1,890/oz yesterday


Gold ETFs 109.7moz vs US$110.0moz yesterday – Gold-backed ETF holdings decline to four-month low as investors favor riskier assets


The largest bullion-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, saw its assets fall to 1,226 tonnes on Tuesday, the lowest level since July.


Optimism over the progress of Covid-19 vaccines has seen investors move away from havens such as gold and the US dollar in favor of riskier assets such as equities and emerging market currencies.


Platinum US$941/oz vs US$925/oz yesterday


Palladium US$2,353/oz vs US$2,324/oz yesterday


Silver US$24.67/oz vs US$24.62/oz yesterday




Base metals:


Copper US$ 7,137/t vs US$7,097/t yesterday – Chinese refined copper prod’n rose 5.4% to 914kt in China and +6.1% to 8.36mt for the year to end October


Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) is launching a copper contract settled in Yuan this week which will allow international access using the US$ for initial margins.


The contract is seen as having three strategic aims; giving international participants another reason to use the yuan, while boosting China’s pricing power in key commodities and establishing it as the Asian benchmark prices away from the LME.


China may have to loosen financial controls with regulatory and currency reforms, including capital controls which could allow capital to escape China.


We suspect the new contract will be used more for arbitrage trading till it becomes better established. This may require some further relaxation of China’s strict exchange controls.




Aluminium US$ 1,992/t vs US$1,957/t yesterday


Nickel US$ 15,830/t vs US$15,780/t yesterday


Zinc US$ 2,757/t vs US$2,679/t yesterday – Chinese refined zinc rose 9.3% mom to 586kt in China and 3% ytd to 5.09mt at end October


Mining at Gamsberg Zinc mine halts following geotechnical failure which trapped 10 employees


Eight workers were quickly rescued from the open pit with two still to be located.


Gamsberg has relatively steep pit walls for an open pit judging by the cross-section on the Vedanta website.


The mine should produce some 250,000tpa of zinc-in-concentrate in Phase 1 representing 1.9% of global production


Phase 2 will take the mine to 450,000tpa of zinc in concentrate or 3.3% of world production.




Lead US$ 1,947/t vs US$1,918/t yesterday – Chinese refined lead rose 9.9% to 5.99kt, up 7.9%ytd at 5.24mt


Tin US$ 19,090/t vs US$18,865/t yesterday




Energy:


Oil US$44.0/bbl vs US$44.0/bbl yesterday


Oil prices rose on Monday and remained steady on Tuesday morning as markets are cautiously looking beyond the COVID-19 pandemic


News that a second vaccine was highly effective lifted global markets yesterday, adding optimism to the prospect that the end of the pandemic is within sight sometime next year


WTI December futures fell to US$41.40/bbl while Brent crude January futures edged up 0.1% to US$43.78/bbl


US crude stockpiles rose by 4.2MMbbls last week according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), well above consensus estimates of 1.7MMbbls


US retail sales improved slightly in October, up 0.3% MoM but this came in below forecasts of a 0.5% improvement.


Motor vehicle dealer sales slowed than in September (0.4% vs 2.9%), gasoline station sales also increased at a slower pace (0.4% vs 2%)


Rising crude inventories and concern over the US retail sales number exerted downward pressure on pricing


At the OPEC+ meeting Saudi Arabia called for fellow members to be flexible in response to the oil markets needs but the meeting ended without a concrete signal producer will reverse plans to increase production in January


The full ministerial meeting is scheduled for Nov 30 and Dec 1, whilst a confidential document seen by Reuters suggests OPEC has revised its oil demand scenarios for 2021 with weaker than anticipated demand expected.


The extension of the OPEC+ production cut deal by three to six months will swing the oil market into a deficit next year according to the group


OPEC+ is considering four possible scenarios for 2021 and is leaning towards a three-month extension


Reuters reported that multiple vaccines could set the stage for an oil price rally next year


Meanwhile, even with the energy transition looming in the long run, oil and gas demand will rebound next year and beyond




Natural Gas US$2.743/mmbtu vs US$2.724/mmbtu yesterday


Whilst a small boost in early trading this morning, natural gas prices continued to fall yesterday on expectations of warmer weather in the US over the next two weeks


Hurricane Iota has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is not expected to impact gas infrastructure


Argentinian natural gas production fell 11% in September according to the IAE, attributed to ongoing pandemic restrictions


The EIA forecasts that US dry natural gas production will average 91.0Bcf/d in 2020, down from an average of 93.1Bcf/d in 2019


In the forecast, monthly average production falls from a record 97.0Bcf/d in December 2019 to 87.0Bcf/d in April 2021 before increasing slightly


EIA forecasts dry natural gas production in the United States to average 87.9 Bcf/d in 2021




Bulk:


Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$122.3/t vs US$120.3/t


Iron ore hits two-month high as Australian exports fall


Iron ore prices rose for the third straight day on Wednesday, as Australian export data showed that flows fell to the lowest level since early September at 16mt- compared to 17.2mt in the week prior.


Meanwhile, China’s factory activity grew by the most in ten months in October- indicating that demand from the world’s top steelmaker is expected to remain robust.


Steel mills in China have churned out more than 90mt of steel every month since May – with rebar prices closing near the highest since July last year (Bloomberg).


Iron ore futures climbed 0.6% to $123/t on the Singapore Exchange on Wednesday – the highest since the 15th of September.


Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$626.9/t vs US$623.5/t




Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$55.9/t vs US$57.1/t – Consortium pulls out of South Africa’s Thabamesti coal plant


A multinational consortium that was building one of South Africa’s first privately owned coal fired stations has requested to pull out.


The Thabametsi plant has been criticised by environmentalists saying it would become one of the most carbon intensive coal power stations globally. However, the country needed the plant to ease an electricity deficit.


This move follows the withdrawal of other major investors from Japan and South Korea who invested after South Africa’s Coal Baseload Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme launched in 2014 to buy 2500MW coal energy.


It is now unlikely to continue unless new investors are found. However, another planned private coal power plant, the 450MW Khanyisa plant in Mpumalanga will go ahead.


South Africa is Africa’s biggest CO2 emitter and is falling behind on its pledges to cut emissions.


Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$109.3/t vs US$112.0/t




Other:


Cobalt LME 3m US$32,395/t vs US$32,835/t


NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$53,123/t vs US$52,623/t


Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$5,801/t vs US$5,720/t


Ferro Vanadium 80% FOB (China) US$27.0/kg vs US$27.0/kg


Antimony Trioxide 99.5% EU (China) US$5.4/kg vs US$5.4/kg


Tungsten APT European US$220-225/mtu vs US$220-225/mtu


Graphite flake 94% C, -100 mesh, fob China US$440/t vs US$440/t


Graphite spherical 99.95% C, 15 microns, fob China US$2,300/t vs US$2,275/t


Spodumene 6% Li2O min, cif (China) US$375/t vs US$385/t




Battery News


Hyundai face legal battle over battery fires


200 Hyundai Kona owners in Korea filed a lawsuit against Hyundai last week seeking compensation for destruction of value as a result of fires in the vehicle model. Initial damages are expected to be 8m won (GBP5,435) per claimant.


A National Forensic Service investigation concluded ‘electrical problems in the battery pack assembly’ are the likely cause of fires which occurred in 13 separate incidents in KONA EVs.


The Hyundai Kona is equipped with NCM 811 batteries produced by LG Chem. High nickel batteries are prone to thermal runway which increases the risk of the battery catching fire.


If it is found that LG Chem’s battery are found to have glitches it is anticipated Hyundai will expect LG chem to indemnify losses suffered as a result of the recall.


GM announced on Friday its intention to recall 68,677 EV following 5 reported fires in Chevy Bolt vehicles which are also equipped with batteries produced by LG Chem.




Panasonic partnership to explore Li-ion battery production in Norway


Equinor, Norsk Hydro and Panasonic announced their intention to set up a Li-ion battery production business in Norway, leveraging Panasonic’s battery technology (Reuters).


The partnership plans to approach car maker in Europe and relevant authorities in Norway to determine efficacy of the project with preliminary findings expected in mid-2021.


Norway is an EV leader with plug-in EVs accounting for 79.1% of vehicle sales in October 2020 and plans to ban the sale of new ICE vehicles by 2025.


Local competition could come from start-up Freyr which announced plans last year to develop a chain of gigafactories in Norway, starting with a 32+2 GWh factory in Rana. The Company received $13m of financing in July 2020 to complete the design and technology selection process.


On the continent Tesla is building a Gigafactory in Berlin while LG Chem has a facility in Poland and SKI a site in Hungary.


Europe’s share of the battery supply market is expected to reach 14% by 2023 and 17% by 2028 (Faraday). Electric vehicle sales are expected to account for 10% of auto sales in Europe in 2020 and 15% in 2021 (The Driven).




Company News


Altus Strategies* (LON:ALS) 59p, Mkt Cap GBP41m – Updated Diba PEA using stronger metallurgical recoveries lifts project NPV to $140m


BUY – 132p


The Company released an updated PEA on the Diba gold project in Western Mali accounting for the significant increase in modelled oxide gold recoveries.


The PEA revision adjusting for metallurgical recoveries increasing from 80% to 95% translated into a significant upgrade in project economics including:


Pre-tax and post-tax NPV10% ($1,500/oz gold price) increased to $152m and $107m, respectively ($115m and $81m in July PEA using 80% recoveries);


Post-tax NPV10% (using $1,800/oz gold price) climbed to $140m ($118m in previous PEA).


Annual gold production increased to 57kozpa (52kozpa previously).


The team has recently launched a 10,000m RC drilling programme at the Diba project aiming to grow the scale of the deposit before considering future development/monetisation options.


Latest metallurgical studies released in October showed the Diba material is amenable to heap leaching and CIL processing demonstrating the following recoveries:


95.8% for coarse oxide material (6.3mm) in the heap leach scenario (recoveries come down only to 94.5% at a coarser fraction size of 16mm);


98.3% for fine oxide material (75um) in the CIL scenario;


86.8% for fine sulphide material (75um) in the CIL scenario.


Results were based on ~130kg of material of weathered and fresh ores with oxide samples grading 3.74g/t and sulphide – 1.02g/t.


Conclusion: A significant increase in modelled gold recoveries drive production run rate higher, reduce AISC costs and translate into a ~20% rise in post-tax Diba NPV10% to $140m (using $1,800/oz gold price). The coming exploration programme will test the scale of the Diba project potentially extending the life of mine past the currently assumed 3.25 years.


*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Altus Strategies




Anglo American (LON:AAL) 2137p, Mkt Cap GBP29.2bn – De Beers reports steady rough diamond sales demand while cautioning on continuing Covid19 risks


Anglo American has announced that the ninth De Beers sales cycle of 2020 realised US$450m (2019 – US$400m) and that the previously reported provisional sales for the eighth sales cycle of US$467m have now been confirmed.


De Beers confirms that it is continuing to use a more flexible approach to its sales cycles in response to the constraints of the Covid19 pandemic. These include extending the sales cycle beyond the usual one week duration.


“As a result, the provisional rough diamond sales figure quoted for Cycle 9 represents the expected sales value for the period 2 November to 16 November and remains subject to adjustment based on final completed sales”.


Commenting on the market for rough diamonds which he described as showing steady demand and cautioning that “the resurgence of Covid-19 infections in several consumer markets presents ongoing risks”, Chief Executive, Bruce Cleaver, said that sales reflect “stable consumer demand for diamond jewellery at the retail level in the US and China, and expectations for reasonable demand to continue throughout the holiday season”.




Bacanora Lithium (LON:BCN) 35.2p, Mkt Cap GBP79m – Mexico presses ahead with plans to nationalise lithium industry


The ruling Morena party is reported to be pressing ahead with plans to nationalise its emerging lithium industry.


The party brought a draft bill for the nationalisation to parliament last week.


The bill calls for lithium to be classed as ‘exclusive property of the nation’ with production controlled by the state.


The government is proposing to create a new company, LitoMex to manage the industry..


It is difficult to see how the Mexican state is going to take assets like Bacanora’s Sonora mine without killing the project.


Sonora’s lithium carbonate is under offtake with Ganfeng Lihtium which plans to process the material into battery grade lithium. Ganfeng is also planning a battery recycling plant in Mexico reported in September but may now reconsider these plans. Mexico does not currently have the processing capacity for the Sonora carbonate.


Ganfeng has an offtake agreement with Bacanora for its lithium carbonate feedstock.


Conclusion: We do not see Bacanora’s Sonora as a target for this nationalisation, though it could get caught by the new legislation if approved.


We suspect the idea of the new bill is to preserve the value of the Salar de Uyuni in the province of Daniel Campos Province in Potosi, one of the world’s largest lithium resources, for the Mexican state.


LitoMex may form an entity to exploit the lithium brines in this area for supply into Mexico’s automotive manufacturing industry.




Botswana Diamonds (LON:BOD) 0.78p, Mkt Cap GBP5.6m – Drilling underway at Thorny River and Marsfontein


Botswana Diamonds reports that its previously announced drilling programme at Marsfontein and Thorny River in South Africa is now underway.


The programme is testing four priority areas identified during the recent geophysical work including “a potential kimberlite “blow” of up to 0.25Ha in extent, and other expansions in the widths (or “swells”) of the dyke system of up to 10m (as opposed to the average 1m)”.


The company explains that the “most widely known blow in the project area is Marsfontein, which was 0.4Ha. Marsfontein was mined by De Beers and SouthernEra and it achieved a return of development capital in under four days”.


Botswana Diamonds also says that the system of kimberlite dykes “extends for 18km over Thorny River from Klipspringer Mine in the west through Marsfontein to Doornrivier in the east, has been demonstrated as having consistent geology and economics. The ground geophysics and drilling programmes are focused on identifying kimberlite volumes to support further development of the property”.


We understand that the Marsfontein kimberlite was initially discovered in 1993 and started relatively short lived production in mid-1998 before closure in the early 2000s however it was considered to be one of the highest grade diamond deposits as indicated by Botswana Diamond’s comment concerning its rapid pay-back.


Conclusion: Now that drilling is underway, we await results from Marsfontein / Thorny River with interest.




IronRidge Resources* (LON:IRR) 15.15p, Mkt cap GBP62m – IronRidge renews gold licenses in Chad


IronRidge Resources has renewed its gold licenses in Chad for another four years.


The licenses are highly prospective and cover the Dorothe, Echbara and Am Ouchar License areas within a 746sqkm portfolio.


The licenses, granted by the ministry of petroleum, are situated in the Ouaddai Region of eastern Chad, approximately 900km east of the capital city of N’Djamena, with the area characterised by Proterozoic lithologies that have been intruded and uplifted by younger Pan-African granitoids and is considered to be prospective for Intrusion Related Gold systems.


IronRidge’s most advanced gold project is the drill-ready Dorothe license, with walk-up drill targets defined, trenching results and ground based IP anomalies over a 3km x 1km area. Results to date have defined six coherent, large-scale gold anomalies with two target types defined – the “Main Vein” target and the “Sheeted Vein” target.


The Dorothe gold project is ready for drilling. Over 14,500m of trenching results have defined the Main Vein and Sheeted Vein targets over a 1km strike and 600m strike respectively, with highlights including:


84m at 1.66g/t from 80m incl. 6m at 5.49g/t & 8m at 6.23g/t*


4m at 18.77g/t from 410m incl. 2m at 36.2g/t+


32m at 2.02g/t from 344m incl. 18m at 3.22g/t


24m at 2.53g/t from 176m incl. 6m at 4.1g/t & 2m at 6.14g/t


6m at 9.48g/t from 2m incl. 2m at 27.6g/t


20m at 2.53g/t from 12m incl. 4m at 10.74g/t


8m at 4.73g/t from 502m incl. 4m at 9.3g/t


8m at 4.51g/t from 32m incl. 2m at 17.1g/t


Kalaka and Nabagay are included within the license package.


The intrusion related gold system in Chad is said to be analogue to the Tintina gold belt in Alaska-Yukon which hosts a number of multi-million ounce gold mines including Donlin Creek (Barrick / Novagold, >45Moz), Fork Knox (Kinross, ~10Moz), Pogo (NST, ~10Moz) and Dublin Gulch (Victoria Gold Corp., >3Moz).


Echbara: previous trenching of the 2,000 x 150m anomaly shows 100-300ppb of gold is soils and:


58m at 1.31g/t,


12m at 2.71g/t


Am Ouchar historic trenching shows 2m to 5m thick, shallow dipping quartz veins:


20m @ 6.8g/t gold,


16m @ 4.7g/t


12m @ 5.7g/t


Vincent Mascolo, CEO of IronRidge, commented: “We are very pleased to have successfully renewed the Dorothe, Echbara and Am Ouchar licenses for a further four-year period; securing this important gold portfolio and in particular the drill-ready Dorothe target – the Company’s most advanced gold project within the Chad portfolio.”


“Now that travel restrictions have eased, we have been able to re-enter Chad and resume activities; the Company’s N’Djamena exploration office is to be re-established shortly and preparations are now underway to allow the resumption of field activities in the new year.” “Our intention is to focus on drill testing the Dorothe target prior to the onset of the wet season in July 2021. We look forward to updating the market with our progress in due course.”


Conclusion: Chad remains highly prospective for gold and other minerals with multi-million ounce gold potential across the region. Oil production has fallen in Chad to around 115,000 barrels of oil a day from 128,000bopd much of which is exported through the Chad-Cameroon pipeline. With oil prices at $44/bbl the government will be keen to support new sources of income and further economic diversification.


*SP Angel act as Nomad for IronRidge Resources




KAZ Minerals (LON:KAZ) 639p, Mkt Cap GBP3bn – Baimskaya capex revised upwards and commissioning delayed


The Company guides for increased costs and delayed commissioning of the Baimskaya project as the government is revising its regional infrastructure capital commitments.


The Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East and Arctic has submitted for approval by the Prime Minister a multi-party Complex Development Plan (CDP) for new infrastructure in the Chukotka region.


Under the CDP, the Company will now need to cover a share of the infrastructure capex including certain parts of the proposed new port facility and road connection.


KAZ Minerals will be responsible for funding and construction of electrical infrastructure, port equipment and accommodation at the new port at Cape Nagloynyn in Chaunskaya Bay.


The new proposed port will be used to received supplies and serve as the export route for copper concentrate.


The Company will also fund and build the first section of the road connection the project with Bilibino (~200km) with discussions over the financing of the second section between Bilibino and the proposed port facility at Cape Nagloynyn are ongoing; total road length between the port and the Baimskaya project is 428km.


Given those changes the Company now expects the DFS to be completed in H1/21 (from end of 2020 previously) with planned commissioning delayed approximately by a year to 2027.


Together with a revised cost for the tailings storage facility, the Company expects the Baimskaya project capex to be close to $8bn, up from $7bn estimated previously.


The update comes amid the proposed all-cash offer for the group launched by the Company’s two largest shareholders in October offering 640p for the 61% interest that they do not already own.




Analysts


John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490


Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484


Sergey Raevskiy –[email protected] – 0203 470 0474


Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486




Sales


Richard Parlons –[email protected] – 0203 470 0472


Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534


Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535


Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471






SP Angel


Prince Frederick House


35-39 Maddox Street London


W1S 2PP




*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)


+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.




Sources of commodity prices


Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver


BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)


Gold ETFs, Steel


Bloomberg


Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt


LME


Oil Brent


ICE


Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore


NYMEX


Thermal Coal


Bloomberg OTC Composite


Coking Coal


SSY


RRE


Steelhome


Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Antimony


Asian Metal


Tungsten


Metal Bulletin



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