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16 December 2020
Video commentary for December 15th 2020
Eoin Treacy’s view
A link to today’s video commentary is posted in the Subscriber’s Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: US fiscal stimulus agreed, Dollar falls, mid and small caps outperform, gold steadies, global markets Ex-US continue to rally on strong currencies suggesting secular rotation.
Email of the day on third party perspectives on the US/China competition
Very interesting interview for those interested in our regional and international affairs Just ignore the first 3 minutes of the intro in the Malay language if you don’t understand Bahasa.
Worth 93 minutes of you time. Download & watch at your leisure.
Kishore Mahbuhani, a Singaporean diplomat, Mahbuhani is brilliant.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Thank you for this video which I agree highlighted a number of interesting themes. The challenge for governments in Asian countries is how to balance the demands for loyalty coming from the world’s superpowers. That’s a particular challenge for those that have historically depended on US support for markets and military protection. They now see their primary growth engine in China while China’s Belt and Road program is the primary source of FDI for many potential projects.
Gold Climbs as Stimulus, Fed and Fresh Lockdowns Support Advance
This article by Ranjeetha Pakiam and Eddie Spence for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
A bipartisan group of lawmakers delivered details of a $908 billion relief package, splitting it into two
parts in recognition of deep differences over state aid and a liability shield for employers. With Joe Biden now confirmed as president by the Electoral College, leaders in Congress need to find a way to get one or both parts through the House and Senate before the last of the relief provisions from earlier stimulus expire at the end of the year.
Bullion’s path in recent weeks has been dominated by developments on vaccines and prolonged stimulus talks in the U.S., with prices set for the first quarterly loss since 2018. Still, the metal may get some support after the Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with markets expecting fresh guidance on
asset purchases. In addition, the haven may get a boost from fresh anti-virus curbs being rolled out in major economies including Germany and the U.K.
“Prices are looking vulnerable again but should once again be saved by the Fed,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda Corp. “Economic scarring will undoubtedly make it easier for the Fed to continue to provide more accommodation and that could make many traders want to jump back in.”
Eoin Treacy’s view
$900 billion is less than what was originally sought but it is still a substantial amount of money. The announcement is also the first concrete evidence of an agreement on additional stimulus since the summer. It vindicates the belief that spending is likely to remain open ended in the coming years as reflation take priority over fiscal responsibility.
ECB Lifts Ban on Bank Dividend With 15% Payout Cap on Profit –
This article by Nicholas Comfort may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Andrea Enria, head of the ECB’s supervisory arm, said in a Bloomberg Television interview that there’s limited visibility on asset quality and that the bank will revisit its decision in September. He also called for moderation on banks’ variable pay.
The cap makes the ECB one of the more hawkish banking watchdogs in Europe. The Bank of England said last week that it will allow lenders to make payouts that don’t exceed 0.2% their risk-weighted assets, or 25% of cumulative quarterly profits over 2019 and 2020 after deducting shareholder distributions.
Eoin Treacy’s view
Europe’s banks are hamstrung by negative interest rates but they still charge fees for just about everything and don’t pay an interest rate. The most significant factor in their favour is the bad debts issue is slowly being eroded. That particularly true on the periphery.
Biden Plots Cuba Reset in Rebuke of Trump’s Sanctions
This article by Ben Bartenstein for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
That strategy includes reducing restrictions on travel, investment and remittances for the island nation that are perceived to disproportionately hurt Americans and ordinary Cubans, said the people, who requested anonymity because the new administration is still coming together. Other measures that target Cuba for human rights abuses would remain in place, the people said.
The prospect of a detente between Washington and Havana rekindles memories of the thaw that Biden helped champion during the Obama administration, when the two nations restored diplomatic ties that had been broken for decades following Fidel Castro’s rise to power.
But the president-elect is returning to an even messier scene: the Cuban economy is suffering its worst crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union amid fallout from Covid-19 and U.S. sanctions. At the same time, Cuban intelligence officers have helped prop up Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, allowing his regime to consolidate its grip on power in defiance of demands for free and fair elections.
Eoin Treacy’s view
It looks increasingly likely that outside of the China question, the USA is likely to migrate back to many of the foreign policies championed during the Obama administration. There may also be a quid pro quo in the offing. Perhaps some assistance on the Venezuela question will be provided in return for easing sanctions.
Eoin’s personal portfolio – trading and investment positions increased December 1st
Eoin Treacy’s view
One of the most commonly asked questions by subscribers is how to find details of my open traders. In an effort to make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary daily until there is a change.
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