Winter may not be coming for Cineworld Group PLC (LSE:CINE), AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) Inc and their fellow cinema chains, as film fans are getting excited about upcoming blockbuster releases.
Spider-Man: No Way Home, out on 17 December, has already broken records: the first trailer hit 335mln views only 24 hours after publication, the highest amount ever clocked in such a short time.
For every view of their trailer on YouTube, the previous Spider-Man movies made approximately US$9.01 at the box office. If it were to happen again, the new episode could rake in US$3bn (GBP2.2bn), making it the most successful movie of all time.
Comparison and switching service Uswitch, which made the calculation, noted that some movies have had much less success at the box office than expected based on their trailers performances, or viceversa.
Nonetheless, cinema operators are pinning their hopes for recovery on the big names set to appear on the screen.
James Bond: No Time To Die will finally debut on 8 October after being postponed several times, both before and during the pandemic.
October will unsurprisingly come with a series of horror movies, such as the Spider-Man spinoff Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Halloween Kills and Last Night In Soho.
Sci-fi Dune, which had been pushed back from 2020, is out on 22 October.
The prolific Marvel studios are dropping the third release this year, after Black Widow and Shang Chi and The Legend of The Ten Rings, hoping that there won’t be any lawsuits this time.
In fact, star Scarlett Johansson sued Disney after it released Black Widow simultaneously on Disney+ and in cinemas.
Although the event was unfortunate, analysts at Peel Hunt believe the film industry has learnt its lesson and will return to cinema release preceding streaming as the norm.
Cinema seems to be big on nostalgia with Ghostbusters: Afterlife and Top Gun: Maverick out in November, followed by The Matrix: Resurrections a few days before Christmas.
West Side Story and The King’s Man will also be out in December.
“Some estimates suggest that box office revenues will be 10% lower post-covid permanently as customers have grown accustomed to watching films at home, studios have shortened the theatrical window and exhibitors have permanently closed the curtains on unprofitable cinemas,” said Harry Barnick, analyst at Third Bridge.
“In an already difficult year, studios have dealt a blow to the exhibitors via theatrical window cuts. We are now entering the unknown: will customers pay to see a film in the cinema or wait 45 days for it to be released on PVOD?”