Today’s Market View – Cora Gold, Bluejay Mining, Anglo American and more…

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SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 08 09 21


Risk sentiment pulls back on growth outlook concerns


MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below




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Anglo American (LON:AAL) – De Beers reports continuing strength in rough diamond demand driven by appetite for polished diamonds in China and the US


BHP (LON:BHP) – BHP signs exploration deal with KoBold Metals


Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) – BHP joins with KoBold Metals to jointly fund exploration using KoBolds AI and data processing technology


Cora Gold (LON:CORA) – Updated $25m Sanankoro project funding term sheet




Copper – China’s copper smelters continue to ramp up production with TcRcs continuing to recover across Asia


The increase in locally smelted/refined copper displaced allot of unwrought copper imports as China continues to drive to add value at home despite claims to cut local pollution


Copper concentrate imports rose 19% yoy in August to 1.89mt essentially stable on July


Unwrought copper metal imports fell 41% yoy to 394,017t a two-year low with copper imports falling for the last 10 out of 11 months


Aluminium imports rose 24% yoy to 490,286t as the authorities continue to shut aluminium production to preserve power for other industries.


They say its to save on hydropower but the dams are at overcapacity and industry is hungry for more power, though it maybe that dams are being overfilled to save towns and farms downstream of the hydropower plants.


Oil imports recovered 8% to 44.53mt (10.49mbbls/d eq.) indicating a good recovery from recent localised Covid-related lockdowns.


China foreign reserves stood at $3.232tn in August vs $3.236tr in July).




Lafarge – Ruling on ‘crimes against humanity’ upheld by French court


A French court has upheld a previous ruling convicting Lafarge of ‘crimes against humanity’.


The ruling is about as serious as it gets and relates to the payment of millions of Euros through a Syrian subsidiary and middleman to militants, including Islamic State.


“According to the indictments, Lafarge made multimillion-dollar payments to ISIS and other armed groups and traded raw materials with them while it operated a cement plant on Syria’s northern border with Turkey during the Syrian civil war. These acts took place, at least until the summer of 2014, with Lafarge being fully aware of ISIS and other armed groups’ on-going crimes in Syria and Iraq.” — Doughty Street Chambers


Payments were made to enable Lafarge to maintain control of a cement factory in Jalabiya during the Syrian civil war.


Lafarge remains under formal investigation in France for charges of crimes against humanity, violating the EU embargo and financing terrorism in 2013 and 2014.


The OECD criticised France for its ‘very low’ rate of legal actions and convictions inadequate penalties and excessive political control of prosecutors in 2012.


France had achieved only four final convictions and one conviction under appeal since bribery of foreign public officials became an offence in 2000 (FT).


Wonder where that fits on the old ESG scorecard?




Aluminium continues climb to 13-year high on back of Guinea-triggered supply concerns


Shanghai’s most traded aluminium contract has hit its highest level since July 2008, rising above 22,000CNY/t.


Despite claims from the coup leaders and local miners, that operations are running smoothly, aluminium prices are suggesting deeper concerns over bauxite supplies from Guinea.


A Singapore trader told Reuters that ‘everyone is trying to get the earliest ship to avoid clashing with arriving just prior or during the National Day break, which results in unnecessary rental and delivery delays.’


The trader also accepted that uncertainty in Guinea was contributing to rising prices.


China currently imports more bauxite from Guinea than any other country.


LME’s 3M contract is settling around its 10-year high of $2,782/t having climbed 40% this year, marking it as the 2nd best performing base metal after tin this year.


Shanghai aluminium inventories are at their lowest since December 2020, last recorded at 232,245t.




Dow Jones Industrials –0.76% at 35,100


Nikkei 225 +0.89% at 30,181


HK Hang Seng -0.24% at 26,290


Shanghai Composite -0.12% at 3,672




Economics


Combination of Delta variant and economic concerns adds downward pressure to global equities


The MSCI world equity index ended a 7-day streak of all-time highs whilst US markets softened following the Labor Day holiday.


Growing concerns over the Delta variant of the virus have combined with fears that the global economy’s recovery following the vaccine rollout has run out of steam.


Asian markets recovered somewhat following strong data regarding China’s trade and sentiment that Japan may extend its stimulus programme.


Weak US payroll data last Friday showed to some extent the impact of Delta cases on employers’ appetite for hiring.


Dovish undertones to J Powell’s Jackson Hole speech sent US equities rallying owing to a series of hawkish comments from FOMC members in the run-up to the meeting.


US Treasury bond yields rose alongside inflation-protected securities on Tuesday following a minor rally last week. This may have been triggered by average wages rising – a signal of price pressures leaving a more long-term mark.




US – The Fed should start paring back the stimulus programme despite weak US labour numbers last month, St Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voting member) said in an interview.


While acknowledging that Delta-related concerns are having an impact, Bullard said labour market looked strong and there is plenty of demand for workers.


The “big picture” is that the taper will start this year and end sometime by H1/22, Bullard told FT.




China – Beijing is anticipated to lower regulatory cash reserve limits in banks to encourage growth. A July cut saw $6.47tn cash released into China’s long-term economy.


Evergrande bonds were temporarily suspended as collapsing prices hit trading limits


The Chinese property giant is heavily indebted and is some concern and President Xi moves to limit rising property prices.


Property sales in first tier cities dropped 16%yoy in August as cities nationwide reintroduced lockdowns during the summer holidays (Bloomberg).


Total auto sales fell 22%yoy marking the biggest decline since last March when the country was still in lockdown to control the initial Covid cases.


China’s smaller exporters reported to be rejecting orders as logistic delays cause inventories to pile up


Will China raise the value of its Yuan currency to help counteract the rising cost of imports and raw materials


China’s smaller manufacturers are suffering a cash squeeze as payments are delayed due to disruption to marine and air freight (SCMP).


Shipping costs have trebled and even quadrupled over the past two years making the export of lower-value goods uneconomic.


Cash is tied up in inventory that is delayed in transit with payments being deferred.


The situation is exacerbated by raw materials suppliers asking for shorter payment terms.


Manufacturers say they are faced with reducing production and turning away orders to avoid the cash squeeze.


The news goes against the marked rise in exports seen in August but is supported by reports by traders of slowing demand for copper in China.


China’s PMI was just 50.1 in August vs 50.4% in July reflecting marginal growth.


Exports (%yoy, US$): 25.6 v 19.3 in July and 17.3 est.


Imports (%yoy, US$): 33.1 v 28.1 in July and 26.9 est.


Chinese Coal imports rose 35.8% yoy in August to 28.05mt vs 30.18mt indicating rising economic activity as does the limiting of power to aluminium smelters


The increase in coal imports helped to drive thermal coal prices 45% higher to $146-147/t in China


The CEC revised its energy consumption forecast to 7-8% for 2021 in April from 6-7% due to stronger domestic activity and exports.


Coal’s share of Chinese energy fell to 57% last year form 58% in 2019 but this still needs more coal imports to meet the total rise in power demand.


Nuclear power generation increased by 4.7% in 2020 though this was dwarfed by renewable generation sources which grew 16.2% in total last year.


Power demand rose by 21.2% yoy in China to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21, exceeding 1Q19 by 14.4%, driven by a 15.3% increase from industry and 16.5% from the tertiary sector (Fitch).




Japan – A revised report showed the economy expanded at a faster rate than initially estimated Q2/CY21.


GDP climbed 1.9%qoq (annualised), up from 1.3%qoq estimated before and a 4.2%qoq drop in Q1/CY21.


Extra government spending, business investment and private consumption supported growth.


While an upwards revision is welcome news, the economy still failed to recover the losses in the previous quarter, while state of emergency measures tightened in summer months is likely to weigh on growth outlook in Q3/CY21.


Expectations are building up for the new ruling party leader (Liberal Democratic Party) to be elected at the end of the month to support a step up in fiscal stimulus amid waning growth prospects and a jump infections.


Japan’s leading economic index holds approximately steady at 104.1 in August vs 104.6 in July


Normally we would expect a positive Olympic boost, but these are not normal times especially in Japan




EU – ZEW economic sentiment fell sharply to 31.1 in September vs 42.7 in August




Germany – ZEW economic sentiment collapsed to 26.5 in September vs 40.4 in August


Industrial production rose 1% in July vs -1% in June


Manufacturing rose 1.3%.


The scope and dynamics of the recovery have been significantly reduced according to ZEW President Achim Wambach.


The dramatic fall in sales of diesel vehicles is a major component of Germany’s struggling recovery




UK – PM Johnson NI increases to push tax burden to 35.5% of GDP, the highest mark since 1950, FT reports.


PM Johnson proposed a 1.25pp rise in National Insurance to be introduced from Apr/22 paid by both employers and workers that will become a separate tax on earned income from 2023.


The measure is expected to raise GBP12bn a year designed to help health services amid the Covid pandemic and bolster social care.


Responding to criticisms that an essential tax increase breaches a manifesto pledge, PM said that the “global pandemic was in no-one’s manifesto”.


Halifax house price index rose 7.1% yoy and 0.7% in August vs 0.4% in July


The UK has been becalmed with wind power falling to 4.1% of total generation.


Nuclear is keeping the lights on at 13.9% of generation while Solar leapt to 10.7% and coal rose to 3.9% (now 1.3%) as the grid scrambled to crank up some old coal-fired power stations.


The UK has just 5.2% of power supplied from storage, more hydro than battery we think suggesting a few more battery packs might be needed if wind drops in the winter.


The UK wholesale electricity price has averaged GBP75.55/MWh vs an average of GBP35.26/MWh last year with prices peaking last Sunday at GBP219.46/MWh.




Potential raised for first African gold market following pact between UAE and Zimbabwe


Zimbabwe-based Victoria Falls Stock Exchange (VFEX) and the Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange (DGCX) have signed an agreement opening the potential for the first gold market in Africa.


A statement from the two described ‘an ultimate aim of establishing an international commodities exchange in Zimbabwe’.


The plan is intended to offer more competitive prices to miners through a reference market according to VFEX’s CEO, Justin Bgoni.


Bgoni described the concept as ‘a holistic approach to the needs of gold miners’, where ‘they raise capital’ which the exchange then makes ‘it easy for them to sell’.


Zimbabwe are looking to tackle the illicit gold market, estimating that over $1.5bn worth of gold is smuggled out of the country pa according to an International Crisis Group report.


Much of the gold smuggled from Zimbabwe ends up in Dubai.


The two exchanges hope an African-based metals exchange could improve legality around transactions.


The DGCX signed an agreement with Sudan’s regulatory body to improve the gold trade between them and Dubai.




West Africa – Mali’s progress toward elections is insufficient, says W. African bloc


West Africa’s main regional bloc on Tuesday said it was concerned Mali’s transitional government has not made sufficient progress toward organising elections in February, following a military coup last year.


Mali’s transition back to democracy following the August 2020 overthrow of the president is being wated closely in a region that has experienced four coups since last year.


Following the coup, Mali’s military leaders agreed to an 18-month transition followed by pesidential and legislative elections in February 2022.


Various electoral deadlines, including the start of updates to voter rolls and the presentation of a new constitution, have not been met.




Currencies


US$1.1835/eur vs 1.1870/eur yesterday. Yen 110.37/$ vs 109.92/$. SAr 14.338/$ vs 14.273/$. $1.376/gbp vs $1.383/gbp. 0.737/aud vs 0.742/aud. CNY 6.464/$ vs 6.457/$.




Commodity News


Precious metals:


Gold US$1,796/oz vs US$1,819/oz yesterday – Indian August gold imports nearly double as festival season gets into full swing


A government source has revealed India’s gold imports jumped to 121t from 63t a year ago.


The value of India’s gold imports increased from $6.7bn to $3.7bn.


The rise marks India’s highest demand for the metal in 5 months.


It is believed that the weak price and upcoming festival season encourage jewellers to ramp up purchases.


Festival season runs from August to Diwali in November.


India is the world’s second largest bullion importer, and a sustained strong demand could support gold’s price.


The Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) have called for a slashing of import duties for both gold and silver to further boost the sector.


The GJEPC’s chairman, Colin Shah, believes that further government support for the Indian jewellery sector could enable it to reach its US$70bn market target.


The Bangladesh Jewellers Association has raised local rates on all varieties of gold in anticipation of a buoyant festival-fuelled demand.


Premiums have been raised to up to $2/oz over domestic prices, with expectations that jewellers could ramp up purchases if stability in prices remains.


Retail demand was supported by fading Covid cases in August as government authorities allowed business to slowly reopen.


Imports in September are predicted to rise above 80t vs 12t 1 year earlier.


Gold hits monthly low as dollar and yields rise


Spot gold has hit $1794.57/oz, falling 1.6% to its lowest price since Aug. 9th.


US gold futures fell 1.9% to $1,798.5.


A double hit of higher yields and a rising dollar have deflated the metal’s appeal among traders.


Metals are expected to face further pressure from a rising dollar, with strategists forecasting the gold market to endure a short term ‘retracement’.


A disappointing US jobs report last Friday had sent the price of gold to a 2.5m high over the potential of a delay in an asset-buying taper.


The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for the 21-22nd September where a more concrete timeline on the Fed’s tapering plan is expected.


Bullion has also suffered from a rise in yields, reaching their highest level since mid-July and reducing the attraction of non-interest bearing gold.


A weakening gold price may also be reflective of the potential for an ECB reduction in stimulus at its meeting tomorrow.


Strategists have pointed to gold’s failed attempt to breach the $1,835 resistance band, having made numerous attempts to break through the level.




Gold ETFs 99.8moz vs US$99.8moz yesterday


Platinum (AIM:ZERO) US$1,002/oz vs US$1,020/oz yesterday


Palladium US$2,367/oz vs US$2,409/oz yesterday


Silver US$24.28/oz vs US$24.57/oz yesterday




Base metals:


Copper US$ 9,315/t vs US$9,379/t yesterday


Aluminium US$ 2,788/t vs US$2,766/t yesterday


Nickel US$ 19,745/t vs US$19,475/t yesterday


Zinc US$ 3,052/t vs US$3,011/t yesterday


Lead US$ 2,279/t vs US$2,266/t yesterday


Tin US$ 31,950/t vs US$32,690/t yesterday




Energy:


Oil US$72.1/bbl vs US$72.6/bbl yesterday


Oil prices have ticked up in early trading today recouping some overnight losses from a stronger dollar and demand concerns, with a slow production restart in the US Gulf of Mexico and resumption of refining activities providing support


China’s crude oil imports rose 8% in August from a month earlier, customs data showed, while China’s economy got a boost as exports unexpectedly grew at a faster pace in August


However, data released on Friday also showed the US economy in August created the fewest jobs in seven months as hiring in the leisure and hospitality sector stalled amid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections


In the Gulf of Mexico, c.79% of oil production remains shut, or 1.44MMbopd, more than a week after Ida hit


Global oil demand is expected to average 96.6MMbopd this year and and exceed 100MMbopd in the second half of 2022, with the group keeping its estimates from a month ago unchanged despite the COVID resurgence in major economies, including China and the US


OPEC+ may find next year more challenging to manage the oil market because supply is forecast to exceed demand by an average of 2.5MMbopd if the group continues easing the cuts as planned and unwind all of the supply it has been holding from the market


The surplus would lead to global inventories rising by 913MMbbls in 2022, according to Bloomberg




Natural Gas US$4.620/mmbtu vs US$4.692/mmbtu yesterday




Bulk:


Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$136.4/t vs US$144.3/t – China Jan-Aug iron ore imports down 1.7% YoY


China imported 750mt of iron ore in the first nine months of the year, a decrease of 1.7% according to customs data.


The value of impor4tsd over the period surged to $133bn over the period, 82% higher than last year – with the average import prices calculated at $178/t.




Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$828.3/t vs US$830.4/t


Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$121.8/t vs US$121.5/t – China willing to improve trade links with Mongolia as coal demand soars


China’s commerce ministry has announced plans to increase spending on Mongolian minerals as well as promoting infrastructure connections to facilitate increasing trade.


Mongolian Vice Premier Amarsaikhan said in a call that he hopes China will support cross-border container transport whilst increasing trade.


China’s primary imports from Mongolia are coal, iron ore and frozen horse meat.


Following Beijing’s diplomatic spat with Australia in December last year, China’s reliance on coking coal from Mongolia has intensified.


Jan-Jul 2021 saw China buy 8.84Mt of coking coal from Mongolia, marking a 34% share of their total imports of the steelmaking ingredient.


A rise in Covid cases in Mongolia caused coal cargos to slide since April to less than 200, a steep decline from the same period’s 800 in 2020


China’s coking coal prices have risen 90% over the past 5 months as supply concerns rise. A better trading relationship with Mongolia is expected to alleviate this somewhat.


Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$290.0/t vs US$285.0/t


China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$375.16/t vs US$374.0/t




Other:


Cobalt LME 3m US$50,840/t vs US$50,840/t


NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$92,282/t vs US$91,989/t


Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$19,802/t vs US$19,358/t – Lithium carbonite prices rally 19% in August on increased battery demand


Lithium prices continued to rise last month, with battery deployments in China’s EV market reaching 11.3GWh in July – more than twice that of a year earlier.


For the first time since 2019,the monthly market share of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries outpaced lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC), with LFP comprising 51.3% of deployments.


The increase in LFP production has led to higher lithium carbonate demand and prices in China, with domestic carbonate and hydroxide prices rising 19% and 17% respectively.


SMM comment that China domestic lithium concentrate has seen substantial shortages, and stocks may be completely depleted by the end of the year.


The news outlet anticipates the price rise to accelerate in September in light of the intensifying contradiction between supply and demand and the continued release of downstream demand for lithium salts in September




China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$960/t vs US$950/t


Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,828/t vs US$1,810/t


China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$305/t vs US$305/t


China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$535/t vs US$535/t


Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 9.0/lb vs US$9.0/lb


Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 37.25/kg vs US$37.25/kg


Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$73.5/t vs US$73.7/t




Battery News


Hyundai plans to make hydrogen fuel cell switch by 2028


Hyundai is aiming to become the first automaker to power all its commercial vehicles with hydrogen fuel cell systems by 2028.


The company said on Tuesday that it will introduce next-generation fuel cell systems in 2023 and cut costs by 50% to make prices competitive with EVs by 2030.


The strategy is part of the company’s goal of cutting carbon emissions by 70% by 2040 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2045.


Hyundai, who have more than two decades of experience in fuel cell system development, have targeted production of 700,000 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles by 2030 but sales have been low because of the high cost of the technology and the lack of refuelling stations.




Tesla sells 32,968 China-made vehicles in July as local sales plummet


Tesla sold 32,968 China-made vehicles in July, including 24,347 for export.


Local sales plummeted 69% to 8621 cars from 28,138 in June.




Mercedes to build EV battery cell gigafactory in US


As part of its electrification strategy, Mercedes plans to build eight battery cell production gigafactories worldwide, with one being planned for the US.


The battery cell factory will supply battery cells for vehicles being produced at Mercedes’ factories in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Ladson, South Carolina.


As well as supplying cells for battery production at the facility in Alabama, the gigafactory could also supply other automotive OEMs or suppliers.


Mercedes announced that it would have EV options in all segments by 2022 and that from 2025 onwards, all newly launched vehicles would be electric-only.




Siemens Gamesa launches recyclable turbine blades


Siemens Gamesa has launched the world’s first wind turbine blade that can be recycled at the end of its lifecycle.


Siemens Gamesa has already reached agreements with three of its major customers for the supply of RecyclableBlades.


The manufacturer is working closely with RWE (ETR:RWE) to install and pilot the innovative recyclable blades at the Kaskasi offshore wind power plant in Germany with plans for the project to be producing energy from 2022.


The first six 81 metre-long RecyclableBlades have already been produced at Siemens Gamesa’s blade manufacturing plant in Aalborg, Denmark.


Many components of a wind turbine, such as the tower and nacelle components have established recycling practices, but until now, the composite materials used in wind turbine blades have been more challenging to recycle.




Company News


Anglo American (LON:AAL) 3,096p, Mkt Cap GBP42.1bn – De Beers reports continuing strength in rough diamond demand driven by appetite for polished diamonds in China and the US


Anglo American has reported that the seventh De Beers sales cycle of 2021 realised US$515m on a provisional basis and that the previously reported sales for the sixth sales cycle of the year have now been confirmed at US$514m rather than the provisional figure of US$510m previously reported.


We estimate that this brings year-to-date sales to over US$3.5bn, ahead of the US$2.9bn achieved at this stage in, pre-Covid19, 2019.


De Beers is continuing its more flexible approach to rough diamond sales in order to accommodate Covid19 related restrictions on international travel and movement of products and as a result “the Sight event extended beyond its normal week-long duration”.


Commenting on the sales figures De Beers Chief Executive, Bruce Cleaver, confirms a positive sentiment within the ‘midstream’ diamond industry with demand for rough diamonds driven by “robust demand for polished diamonds in our key markets of the US and China”.


Mr Cleaver cautions however that “As we now head towards a traditionally slower period for rough diamond sales, we remain cognisant of the risks to economic recovery from the global pandemic”.




Bluejay Mining* (LON:JAY) 11.50p, Mkt cap GBP112m – BHP joins with KoBold Metals to jointly fund exploration using KoBolds AI and data processing technology


Click link for Kobold deal pdf


BUY – Valuation 37.7p


BHP has joined up with KoBold Metals to jointly fund exploration using KoBolds AI and data processing technology.


The deal enables Kobold to access BHP databases to use KoBold’s AI and data processing technology to help find undiscovered mineral deposits starting in Western Australia.


BHP’s CEO Mike Henry recently announced the company’s plans to shift its focus to battery metals, emphasising the importance of nickel to the future of society.


We believe BHP is particularly focussed on nickel despite having sold its Ravensthorpe mine and nickel refinery to First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FQM) in 2009 for US$340m.


KoBold Metals is backed by Breakthrough Energy Ventures which is backed by Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Michael Bloomberg and Ray Dalio.


‘Exploration success rates have been declining over the last couple of decades … because the easy things have been found. according to the KoBold CEO Kurt talking to Reuters,.


The discovery zones over the next 20 years will be at depths of 200 m to 1,500 m.


That’s the area that is very poorly explored (and) is likely to host a tremendous number of ore bodies.’.


Conclusion: It will be interesting to see where the first new discoveries will be made using the kobold technology.


Will it be on the Disko/Nuussuaq licenses in Greenland or in BHP’s back yard in Western Australia?


Or will Bluejay’s joint venture with Rio Tinto in Finland beat KoBold and BHP to a first discovery?


*SP Angel act Nomad and broker to Bluejay. The analyst has previously visited the Enonkoski mine site in Finland. The analyst holds shares in Bluejay Mining.




Cora Gold (LON:CORA) 17.8p, Mkt Cap GBP44m – Updated $25m Sanankoro project funding term sheet


The Company signed a new $25m Mandate and Term Sheet with Lionhead Capital Advisors to fund Sanankoro gold project development.


$25m Term Sheet will be comprised of $12.5m in equity and $12.5m in convertible bonds.


The agreement is subject to a series of project milestones including


DFS to be completed before the end of H1/22;


Minimum project IRR threshold of 35% using $1,500/oz gold price;


8 year mine life and production of 40kozpa or equivalent production over a different time period delivering minimum IRR threshold;


The team is expecting to deliver an updated MRE in Q4/21 reflecting both step out and infill drilling completed since the maiden Sanankoro MRE released in Dec/19 (5mt at 1.65g/t for 265koz all Inferred category).


Lionhead is acting as lead investor and arranger on behalf of a consortium of investors and Paul Quirk, a NED of Cora, is a founding partner and director of Lionhead.


The Quirk Family are potential beneficiaries of trusts that own 34.55% of Cora through Brookstone Business Inc and Key Ventures Holding Ltd.


Subscription price for the equity component will be the lower of a 10% discount to 30d VWAP when Cora meets project milestones or the lowest price Cora raised money at in the 60d period before meeting project milestones.


Convertible financing involves a five year term, 8%pa coupon, 1% NSR royalty until 250koz is produced (Cora may buy back the royalty for $3m) and may be converted at any time before the end of the five year term into Cora shares at the lower of a 30% premium to the 30d VWAP at the time of Equity Financing or the 30d VWAP at the time of conversion.


Previous Term Sheet involved a potential $21m investment (equity/convertible/debt) and was subject to the Company delivering a DFS by YE21 showing +60% IRR at $1,400/oz and +6y mine life at +40kozpa.


Lionhead prepared to syndicate +30% of the Term Sheet on the same terms with other investors


Conclusion: The Company agreed an updated Lionhead Term Sheet for a potential $25m investment covering a share of the Sanankoro gold project. The Company has recently appointed consultants to deliver the DFS by targeted H1/22 using a what is expected to be a larger mineral resource and using CIL processing option as opposed to initially planned heap leaching operation. One of conditions for the agreed funding is for Cora to prove up enough reserves to support 320koz in production and deliver a minimum 35% IRR (at US$1,500/oz).




Recent Interviews:


IGTV: Chinese slowdown is ‘unlikely to be for long’: https://youtu.be/XuW2I6Z3-RU


Mining sector: where now as Gates & Bezos move in?: https://youtu.be/3is7kRMb7yk


China fearing failure in metals pricing tactic: https://youtu.be/RK4HQPrs60s


Evolution of Chinese construction and implications for commodity demand: https://youtu.be/jB2nURL8uPw


VOX Markets: 02/09/21: https://audioboom.com/posts/7933954-john-meyer-on-china-bluerock-cornish-metals-ironridge-scotgold


18/08/21: https://audioboom.com/posts/7926110-john-meyer-on-diamonds-gold-including-bluerock-petra-cora


BBC: Catalytic converters https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p09jl6c9


*SP Angel almost invariably acts as nomad or broker or nomad and broker to companies mentioned in the above videos and podcasts.


We speak more about these companies as we have a good understanding of their business and can talk with a greater degree of confidence. As ever, however, it should be noted that our views do not take into account the circumstances and needs of any particular investor or investor type. So enjoy the talks, but please do your own research, including other companies not mentioned by us but operating in the same areas, and get professional advice where appropriate.




No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”


No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”


The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020




Analysts


John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490


Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484


Sergey Raevskiy [email protected] – 0203 470 0474


Joe Rowbottom – [email protected] – 0203 470 0486




Sales


Richard Parlons [email protected] – 0203 470 0472


Abigail Wayne – [email protected] – 0203 470 0534


Rob Rees – [email protected] – 0203 470 0535


Grant Barker – [email protected] – 0203 470 0471






SP Angel


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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)


+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.




Sources of commodity prices


Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver


BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)


Gold ETFs, Steel


Bloomberg


Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt


LME


Oil Brent


ICE


Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore


NYMEX


Thermal Coal


Bloomberg OTC Composite


Coking Coal


SSY


RRE


Steelhome


Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite


Asian Metal

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